wikipedia

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

http://www.tecsoc.org/innovate/focusbilljoy.htm

• meta
  • Bill Joy cofounded Sun Microsystems; Chief Scientist until 2003; inventor of or contributor to a number of important technologies
  • 1998 bar conversation with Singularist Ray Kurzweil head to his discussion with others and research, culminating in his April 2000 essay in Wired, "Why the future doesn't need us"
  • essay was and continues to be much debated
• problems
  • worried that our technology will get ahead of us. specifically GNR (genetic engineering, nanotechnology, robotics (ie with AI))
  • the fear is that our own technologies will grow beyond our control - not unreasonable considering this already happening - eg seeds from genetically engineered plants distributing
  • the real worry is when we create things that can self-replicate, or figure out how to do so
    • "robots, engineered organisms, and nanobots share a dangerous amplifying factor: They can self-replicate. A bomb is blown up only once - but one bot can become many, and quickly get out of control."
  • people won't really, for instance, do all this at once, it may be "slowly", so that we barely realize we're doing it
  • worry is that we're increasingly dependent on our own tech, as it gets smarter/more useful, turning it off would be like suicide- then it can get out of control
  • the "old" (recent) driver of tech is governments due to war, eg NBC (nuclear, chemical, biological), but new tech is commerically-driven, thus harder to control
  • new tech, unlike old tech, requires more knowledge than resources, can be done by small number (even 1) of smart people
  • suggests knowledge-enabled mass destruction KMD, along with self-replication stuff
  • some potential scenarios
    • robots (as a "species") outcompete humans
      • Robotic industries would compete vigorously among themselves for matter, energy, and space, incidentally driving their price beyond human reach. Unable to afford the necessities of life, biological humans would be squeezed out of existence /from "the short run", quoted in the essay
    • machines do everything, so humans have no meaning to life... have to be engineered for this not to be a problem or ?
    • genetically engineered on purpose or by accident plague
    • grey goo: molecular bots self-replicate, out-competing biologic bacteria, reducing biosphere to dust in days; "plant" with "leaves" (today's solar cells) could out-compete real plants, destroy biosphere
• solutions
  • advocates curtailing some technologies. trying to use tech no fight or protect tech is likely to do more harm than good
    • regulation, transparency; scientists taking ethical oath
  • we need to change our utopian goal from imortality to fraternity/equalty
• not-a-problems
• grey goo: we can't build something that efficient; if it were it'd have to be somewhat organic, then stuff could eat it; would have to be intentional then could be safeguards, using assemblers to build weapons or something a greater threat